The Study of Iran's Scientific Growth Model after the Islamic Revolution in Iran: Field of Science

Document Type : مقالات پژوهشی

Authors

• hossein moradi moghadam ¹
• Mohamad Reza Davarpanah ²
• Mohamad Hossein Dayani ²

¹ Semnan university

² Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

10.22067/riis.v5i1.15865

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to identify Iran’s scientific growth model in the field of science during 1980 to 2010 (three decades).
Methodology: This study was an applied one which was conducted by using trend studies method and time series analysis. The research population included Iran's all scientific productions which were indexed in Science Citation Index (SCI) during 1980 to2010, (90,000 Records).
Findings: Based on time series analysis and by using R statistical software, Iran's scientific growth models were identified and their growth graphs were analyzed. The dominant scientific growth models for Iran were logistic. The annual growth rate of Iran's scientific production during these years was not stable. Iran's annual scientific production rate in the first, second, and third decades were negative, positive, and rather low, and positive and very high, respectively. Iran's average annual scientific production rates were 15%. Some scientific growth models and their implications for the scientific growth at the national and international levels as well as the factors affecting = the growth trends are presented. Price's hypothesis stating that the exponential growth of science constantly amounts to two times per 15 years was confirmed in the cases of Iran's scientific production; however, his proposed constant growth rate is ambiguous and needs to be revised.

Keywords

• Scientific growth
• Iran's scientific production
• Price's hypothesis

---

References

Andersen, J.P. (2011). Price Revisited: on the growth of dissertations in eight Research fields. Scientometrics. Published online: 19 May. DOI 10.1007/s11192-011-0408-8.

Alijani, R. & Karami, N. (2007). A review of 20 years of Scientific Production of Iran Based on the ISI database. Information behavior & Information science journal. 1(5). p. 4-44. (In Persian)

Baskurt, O. (2011). Time series analysis of publication counts of university: what are the impelications?. Scientometrics. Published online: 22 september. DOI 10.1007/s11192-010-0298-1.

Cole, S. Meyer, G.S. (1985). Littele science big science revisited. Scientometrics, 7(3-6): 443-458.

Davarpanah, Mr. (2007). Scientific communication: Information needs and Information seeking behavior. Tehran: Dabizesh; Chapar. (In Persian)

Davarpanah, Mr. (2010). Scientific Power Index: A Model for the evaluation and comparision of scientific productivity. Library and Information Science. 13(51),p.5-15. (In Persian)

Delavar, Ali (2001). Theoretical and practical research in the humanities and social sciences. Tehran: Roshd. (In Persian)

Didegah, F. (2010). International Scientific Collaboration among Iranian Researchers during 1998-2007. MA Thesis. Shiraz University. (In Persian)

Efthomidis, E.N.(1990). The growth of the OPAC literature. Journal of the American Society for Information Science. 41(5): 342-347.

Egghe, L. & Ravichandra Rao I.K.(1992). Classification of growth models based on growth rates and its applications. Scientometrics. 25(1): 5-49.

Essential Science Indicators (2011). Available at: http://thomsonreuters.com/products_services/science/science_products/a-z/essential_science_indicators/. Retrieved desember 31,2011.

Furner, J. (2004). Little book big book: before and after little science, big science. Informology. 2 (2). p. 55-76. (In Persian)

Fernandez -cano, A.; Torralbo M. & Vallejo, M. (2004). Reconsidering Price’s model of scientific growth: An overview. Scientometrics. 61(3): 301-321.

Fernandez cano, A., Torralbo M. & Vallejo, M. (2012).Time series of scientific growth in spanish doctoral theses (1848-2009). Scientometrics. Published online: 15 December. DOI 10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x.

Furner, j. (2003). Little book، big book: before and after litter science, big science. Journal of librarianship & information science .35 (2): part I

Granovsky, Y. V.(2001). Is it possible to measure science? V.V. nalimov’s research in scientometrics. Scientometrics .52 (2): 127-150.

Gupta, B.M. et al (2002). Modeling the growth of world social science literature. Scientometrics. 53( 1): 161-165.

Gupta, B.M. & karsidapa, C.R. (2000). Modeling the growth of literature in the area of theoretical population genetics. Scientometrics.49(2) :321-355.

Gupta, B.M.& Sharma, P.(1997). Growth of Research literature in scientific specialties. A modeling perspective. Scientometrics. 40 (3): 507-528.

Hart, P.W. Sommerfeld, J.T.(1998). Relationship between growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and growth in the chemical engineering literature in five different countries. Scientometrics. 42(3): 299-311.

Khorami, M. & Bozorgnia,A.(2007). Time series analysis. Mashhad.Sokangostar

Leydesdorff, Loet & Ismael Rafols (2009). A Global Map of Science Based on the ISI Subject Categories. Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology. 60(2): 348-362.

Moein, M. Mahmoudi, M., Rezaei, N.(2007). Scientific output of iran from 1970 to 2002. Hakim, 10(2), p.8-14. (In Persian)

Niakan, S.(2010). Iranians Scientific Productivity on an International Scale (1998-2007). Faslname-ye ketab, 21(4).p.72-86. (In Persian)

Noroozi, A. et al (2009). Evaluation of Iran Scientific Productions based on ISI statistics through 1993- 2007. Faslname-ye ketab, 77, p.175-200. (In Persian)

Osareh, F. & Wilson, C.(2000). A comparison of Iranian scientific publication in the Science Citation Index: 1985-1989 and 1990-1994. Scientometrics. 48(3): 427-447.

Osareh, F. (1998). A comparison of international scientific publications in the developing countries. Journal of Education & psychology (shahid chamran university). 3(1, 2):19-30.

Osareh, F. & Wilson. S.(2005). Iranian scientific Publication: collaboration, growth and development from 1985-1999. Faslname –ye ketab, 16(2):.131-144. (In Persian)

Price, D.J. de s.(1975). A gerenal theory of bibliometrics and other cumulative process. Journal of the American Society for Information Science. 27(5): 292-306.

Rahbardar, H.(2010). Comprehencive guide to research methods in education and psychology. Mashhad: Ketabkhaneh rayanehie. (In Persian)

Sabouri, A. & Poorsasan, N. (2006). Scientific prruductiion of Iran in 2005. Rahyaft. 16(37): 49-52. (In Persian)

Sabouri, A. (2006) Scientific prruductiion of Iran in 2006. Rahyaft. 16 (38): 40-45. (In Persian)

Sangam, S.L. (2009). Modeling the growth of India and Chinese liquid crystal literature as reflected in Science Citation Index (1997-2006). Scientometrics. online. Published : 25 july. DOI: 10.1007/s11192-009-0079-x.

Szydlowski, M. & Krawiec, A.(2009). Growth cycles of knowledge. Scientometrics. 78(1): 99-111.

Tague, J. & Beheshti, J. (1981). The law of exponential growth : evidence, implication and forecasts. Library Trend. 30(1 ):125-149.

Thomson Reuters(2011). ISI. Web of knowledge, Science Citation Index expanded. Available at http://www.Web of knowledge .com. Retrieved desember 31, 2011

Vinkler, peter(2010). The evaluation of research by scientometric indicators. Oxford: Chandos Pub.