The Study of Iran's Scientific Growth Model after the Islamic Revolution in Iran: Field of Science

Document Type : مقالات پژوهشی


1 Semnan university

2 Ferdowsi University of Mashhad


Purpose: This study aimed to identify Iran’s scientific growth model in the field of science during 1980 to 2010 (three decades).
Methodology: This study was an applied one which was conducted by using trend studies method and time series analysis. The research population included Iran's all scientific productions which were indexed in Science Citation Index (SCI) during 1980 to2010, (90,000 Records).
Findings: Based on time series analysis and by using R statistical software, Iran's scientific growth models were identified and their growth graphs were analyzed. The dominant scientific growth models for Iran were logistic. The annual growth rate of Iran's scientific production during these years was not stable. Iran's annual scientific production rate in the first, second, and third decades were negative, positive, and rather low, and positive and very high, respectively. Iran's average annual scientific production rates were 15%. Some scientific growth models and their implications for the scientific growth at the national and international levels as well as the factors affecting = the growth trends are presented. Price's hypothesis stating that the exponential growth of science constantly amounts to two times per 15 years was confirmed in the cases of Iran's scientific production; however, his proposed constant growth rate is ambiguous and needs to be revised.


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